Just two months prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were an indicator or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.